|Submited on :||Tue, 13th of Feb 2018 - 09:50:41 AM|
|Post ID :||7x5ynj|
|Post Name :||t3_7x5ynj|
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|Subreddit ID :||t5_2tk95|
Love it. Very interesting and very clear. So it's the areas that are actually less impacted by immigration that are taking the hard right stance on immigration. Seems to speak to the power of interacting with people who are unlike you.
Thank you for plotting the data. If we only look at the data points and also ignore the colors, we might think that below a certain percentage of foreigners the likelihood of voting far-right dramatically increases. This is only the case for foreigner percentage < ~4% (?). Now, if we ignore the east then there is absolutely no correlation, everything is spread out around the eventual percentage the AfD got in the election. Since we know that the former East differs in many many aspects when compared to the West, we actually realize that the increase of AfD in the East is much more likely coming from those confounding factors. Especially, look at the red dots with foreigner percentage > 3-4%. They all hover around a different median then the green dots. Also, there are not enough green dots in the super-low foreigner percentage. What we might look at are completely independent effects. The people from east might vote far-right on average just as much as the people in the west, but in addition to that they have more motivations to do so - a lack of development and broken promises might play a key role here. They lower foreigner percentage might just be an independent read-out for development, prosperity and attractiveness of a certain region. Try plotting this with relative GDP of those regions compared to rest of the country, health status, education levels, median income etc - that would be interesting : )
In the 2017 parliamentary elections, the far-right AfD party managed to enter the Bundestag for the first time, receiving 12.6% of all votes. It is believed that many of its voters fear too much immigration. So I decided to take a look at the correlation between the foreign population and the electoral success of the AfD in the last two elections.
The demographic data (foreign population and overall population) come from here and here (enter code 12411 to access the statistic). They are both from 2015, so any change in those data between 2013 and 2017 is not reflected.
This visualisation was created using R. All code and data can be found on my Github.